当前位置：首页 > 过刊浏览->2010年第31卷第2期
HTML全文
华东地区ML≥4.0地震平静预测意义分析
Seismic quiescence of ML≥4.0 earthquakes in East China and its significance in earthquake prediction
- DOI:
- 作者:
- 郑先进 刘东旺 沈小七 刘泽民
- 作者单位:
- 中国合肥 230031 安徽省地震局
- 关键词:
- 华东地区；地震平静；检验；地震时间间隔
East China，earthquake quiescence，examination method，interval between earthquakes
- 摘要:
- 用统计学上的χ2检验方法对华东地区ML≥4.0地震平静进行了统计检验，得出在较高的置信概率下可以将平静时间T≥140天作为平静异常的判别标准。总结了华东地区自1970年以来出现的平静异常，并分析了其对应中强地震的情况。研究表明，ML≥4.0地震平静异常是华东地区中强震前的一种普遍现象。62.5%的平静异常后发生了MS≥4.5地震；绝大多数平静异常前存在着地震活动的增强过程，多次活动增强后连续发生了平静异常且之后发生了MS≥5.0地震。
In this article, we use the examination method to give statistic and examination of ML≥4.0 earthquake quiescence in East China. We get the conclusion that if the quiet time of ML≥4.0 earthquake is more than 140 days, it can be regarded as an abnormity with high probability. We summarized the ML≥4.0 earthquake quiescence abnormity in East China since 1970 and analyzed the subsequent midstrong earthquakes. It can be found that there were earthquake quiescence abnormity before most midstrong earthquakes in East China. After a quiescence abnormity, in most cases (62.5%), an earthquake of MS≥4.5 will occur. Before most quiescence abnormity, there is an activity abnormity. Many times after an activity abnormity, continuous quiescence abnormity occurs and then an earthquake of MS≥5.0 happens.
