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汶川地震对华东地区中强震的影响分析
Analysis of influence of Wenchuan earthquake on the moderate earthquakes in East China
- DOI:
- 作者:
- 缪鹏1)2)王行舟2)吴小平1)
- 作者单位:
- 1)中国合肥 230026 中国科学技术大学地球与空间科学学院 2)中国合肥 230031 安徽省地震局
- 关键词:
- 青藏块体；中强地震；概率增益模型；β分布函数
Qinghai Tibet block, moderate earthquakes, synthetical probability gain model, β distribution function
- 摘要:
- 汶川8.0级巨大地震发生在青藏块体与华南活动地块交界部位的龙门山断裂带上，是在青藏块体长期受印度板块NNE向推挤隆升并向东挤压的背景下形成的。统计分析表明，1900年以来,青藏块体MS≥7.0强震和华东地区MS≥5.0中强震存在较好的对应关系。通过概率增益模型检验这种对应关系，发现并非随机对应，而是存在一定的内在物理联系，与这两个区域存在构造关联相一致。通过β分布函数的概率计算,预测2011年之前华东地区发生5级以上中强震的概率为0.68。
The Qinghai Tibet block was pushed by Indian plate in NNE direction for a long period, and the block uplifted and squeezed eastward. At this background, Wenchuan MS 8.0 Earthquake occurred in the Longmenshan fault, which is the junction of the Qinghai Tibet block and the South China active block. Statistical analysis indicates a better corresponding relationship between strong earthquakes with MS≥7.0 in the Qinghai Tibet block and moderate earthquakes with MS≥5.0 in East China since 1900. On the basis of synthetic probability gain model, it can be found that it is not a randomly relationship, but a certain of internal physical connection, which is consistent with the tectonic association existing in the two regions. Using the β distribution function, it can be predicted that the occurrence probability of the moderate earthquake with MS≥5.0 in East China before 2011 is 0.68.
