采用“自激励门限自回归模型”（SETAR）对山西、河北平原带及郯庐带1970年以来半年度最高震级序列进行了分析计算，给出了1998年以来山西、河北平原带及郯庐带半年度最高预测震级。结果表明，该模型对半年度地震趋势预测具有良好的预测效果，这种建模方法有效，模型可信。

The highest halfyearly magnitude series of the Shanxi seismic belt, the Pingyuan seismic belt in Hebei Province and the Tanlu seismic belt since 1970 have been analyzed and calculated by use of selfexciting threshold autoregressive model (SETAR). The highest predicted magnitudes of the Shanxi seismic belt, the Pingyuan seismic belt in Hebei Province and Tanlu seismic belt since 1998 are presented. The result indicates that the model has good prediction effect on halfyearly earthquake tendency and that the modeling method is effective and the model is reliable.