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2009年3月28日山西原平ML4.5地震的地震序列余震发育,序列多个指标表明本次地震类型为主震一余震型。主震视应力值接近背景水平,推断震中周边地区近期发生更大地震的可能性不大。经检验与事实相符。山西带ML≥4地震韵律特征表明,原平地震预示着山西带将进入第五个活跃时段;鄂尔多斯北缘、东缘、南缘大片区域、长时间4级平静与震例统计结果表明,该区域4次平静异常结束后有3次发生6级以上强震;原平地震的发生预示着未来一段时间内华北地区存在发生强震的可能性。
The earthquake sequence of Yuanping ML4.5 earthquake on 28 March 2009 is developed. Several sequence indexes reveal that the earthquake type is the main shock-aftershock type. Apparent stress value of the main shock is close to the background level, inferring that the possibility of occurring larger earthquakes around the epicenter is small, as is consistent with the fact. Yuanping ML4.5 earthquake broke the 1669-day long quiescence of ML 4 earthquakes of Shanxi belt and even the north and south margins of Ordos block since Yuxian ML4.0 earthquake on 31 August 2005. The rhythmic feature of ML4.0 earthquakes of Shanxi belt indicates that Shanxi belt will come into the fifth seismic active period after Yuanping earthquake. The long and large-area quiescence of ML4 earthquakes within the north, south and east margins of Ordos block and its earthquake-case study results reveal that three strong earthquakes with magnitudes over M6.0 had occurred after four times of quiescence of M4 earthquakes of this area. Consequently, the occurrence of Yuanping earthquake indicates that in a future period the North China has the possibility of occurring strong earthquakes.