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西宁周边地区地震窗口预报方法研究
- DOI:
- 作者:
- 马建新，李滔
Majianxin，Litao
- 作者单位:
- 青海省地震局监测中心，
青海省地震局西宁地震台
Qinghai Province Earthquake Bureau monitoring center，
Seismological Bureau of Qinghai province Xining seismic station
- 关键词:
- 地震窗口、预报方法、活动性、震前异常、中期预报
Seismic windows; Forecast method; Activity; Anomaly before earthquakes; Medium term prediction.
- 摘要:
- 本文选取了位于青藏高原北部的西宁及周边区域(即N34-40°，E96-104°)，分别对以1°为步长，3°×3°作为窗口进行采用空间扫描得出的24个研究窗口，采用MAPSIS软件进行各项地震学参数的计算，并将计算结果与窗口中心点周边300公里以内的中强地震进行对照研究，找出N35-38°E100-103°窗口的计算结果与周边中强地震对应效果较好，该窗口共有9项地震活动性参数的计算结果的变化情况与周边MS≥5.5级地震有明显的对应关系，且在2008年汶川8.0和2010年玉树7.1级地震前也大多有明显的异常反应。同时，对异常到发震的时间差与该窗口中心点300公里以内的MS≥5.5级的震级、震中距的有关系研究后发现，时间差与震中距之间，有近似线性的拟合关系，而与震级之间的线性拟合关系较差。并在此基础上，提出了半定量的预报指标。
This paper selected the area surrounding Xining region (N34°-40°, E96°-104°) which located in the northern Tibetan Plateau, we obtained 24 study windows by scanning the area space with the step by 1 ° and the window by 3° × 3° respectively. We calculated the seismological parameters by MAPSIS software, and then made a comparative study between the calculation and the strong earthquakes within 300 km of the windows, we found that there was Obvious correspondence between the nine seismic activity parameters changes of N35-38°E100-103° window and the earthquakes MS ≥ 5.5 less than 300 km, and the same abnormal changes were appeared before 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake and 2010 Yushu 7.1 earthquake. And at the same time, we found that there was a near linear fitting relationship between the time difference which was from earthquake origin time to abnormal changes and epicentral distance, on this basis, a semi-quantitative prediction index was put forward.
