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灰色马尔可夫理论在地震预测方面的研究
Research of the earthquake prediction based on gray Markov mode
- DOI:
- 作者:
- 王党席 董平江 韩晓飞
- 作者单位:
- 中国西安710068陕西省地震局
- 关键词:
- 地震预测;GM(1,1);灰色马尔可夫模型;状态转移矩阵
earthquake prediction;GM(1,1);Gray -Markov model;state transition matrix
- 摘要:
- 以陕南地区汶川地震余震资料数据为实例,提出灰色马尔可夫模型对地震进行预测。首先利用传统的GM(1,1)模型对此数据进行拟合和初步预测,其次运用马尔可夫模型的状态区间和状态状态转移矩阵对此初步预测值进行以修正,并对下一组地震数据进行预测,结果表明模型预测精度高,预测值与实际值非常接近,该方法可以作为以后地震预报的一种辅助手段,也可以应用在天气预报中。
The interest of this paper is to propose a Gray Markov (GM) model for earthquake prediction with the example of the 2008 Wenchuan aftershocks occured in the area of southern Shaanxi provinces. The aftershocks data are fitted for a preliminary prediction based on GM (1, 1) model. The results of preliminary prediction are revised using Markov model's state interval and state transition matrix. The next group of earthquake data are used to predict based on Gray -Markov model. It shows that the method is more accurate. The results show that the predicted values and real values are in a good match. Then, the predicted values and real values are also very close. This method can be recognized as practicality in earthquake prediction, even in the field of weather forecast.