永年水管倾斜NS分量2012年9月出现加速N倾异常，这种显著异常变化是由干扰因素引起还是与地震孕育有关，需要给出合理的判定意见；本文从洞室环境、仪器系统、供电系统、环境干扰等多方面进行调查和分析，并采用三维集中荷载模型计算了采石场、挖土场等荷载变化对水管倾斜观测影响的理论值，采用定性与定量相结合的方法判定此项异常很可能是周围环境干扰造成的荷载变化所致。

 There is tilts acceleratedly anomaly toward the north of water tube tiltmeter NS component of Yongnian seismic station from September 2012,we need to scientifically determine that the anomaly is caused by other factors of interference or the earthquake preparation．We survey the cavern environment, instrument system, environmental disturbance, and power supply system. Calculating the theoretical values of load influences to crustal tilt observation by three-dimensional concentration load model, the load influences include quarry and soil excavating. We preliminary judge the anomaly caused by environmental disturbance through qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation.