2017年12月永清井观测温度急剧下降，采用该井水温、水位多年观测数据，从仪器测量原理及精细温度梯度测量出发，结合井孔资料，认为该变化为永清MS 4.3地震（井震距<30 km）发生前的异常信息。利用正弦累加模型计算温度异常持续时间和幅度，发现该异常变化存在2个周期：①周期42天，温度变化幅度为0.042 12℃；②周期16.77天，温度变化幅度为0.018 62℃。分析认为，区域应力状态发生变化，使含水层渗透性受到影响，从而间接影响到井下温度传感器安放处水温。地震发生后近距离观测到水温异常变化尚属首次，利用模型对变化时间与幅度进行量化提取，可为经验预报、统计预报提供经典震例。
The pre-seismic abnormal information was found, through the multi-year observed data and the temperature gradient, in groundwater temperature of Yongqing well before Yongqing earthquake (MS 4.3, distance to epicenter<30 km). This abnormal information was the first detected in the area where close to the epicenter. The pre-seismic abnormal information presented that quickly declined from December 2017 and sustained for 40 days. Two periods were found by the sinusoidal accumulation model, one was the 42 days with amplitude of 0.042 12℃ and another was 16.77 days with amplitude of 0.018 62℃. We considered that the groundwater temperature dynamic was determined by the permeability changing, which was affected by the local stress state. This study can provide the valuable earthquake case for empirical and statistical prediction of earthquake through the computation the duration and amplitude in quantity.
2018,39(6): 173-180 收稿日期：2018-07-19
DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1003-3246.2018.06.025
基金项目：河北省地震科技星火计划面上项目（项目编号：DZ20170509048）；国家自然科学基金（项目编号：41772256）；中央级公益性科研院所基本业务专项（项目编号：ZDJ2017-25）
作者简介：王艳(1981-),女,工程师,主要从事地下流体监测预报工作。E-mail:43395571@qq.com
*通讯作者：何案华(1979-),男,副研究员,主要从事地震地下水观测技术与理论方法研究工作。E-mail:dqs_hah@163.com
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