2019年10月12日，广西北流—广东化州交界发生MS 5.2地震，选取广西北流—广东化州区域2010年1月1日—2019年12月31日ML≥2.0地震目录，对震前地震活动性参数进行时空扫描，并进行地震空区分析，发现部分地震活动性参数异常，且震前存在孕震空区。分析结果如下：震前b值时间扫描曲线长期位于均值线之上，持续时间一年以上；b、C、D值空间扫描均存在异常，其中震前b值异常范围为1.0—2.0，C值异常范围为0.04—0.32，D值异常范围为0.01—0.09；2016年4月至2019年9月，震中附近出现孕震空区，后在空区边缘发生此次MS 5.2地震。
An MS 5.2 earthquake occurred at the border of Beiliu in Guangxi Province and Huazhou in Guangdong Province on October 12, 2019. The ML ≥ 2.0 earthquake catalog of Guangxi Beiliu-Guangdong Huazhou from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2019, was selected to carry out spatio-temporal scanning of seismicity parameters before the earthquake and conduct a seismic gap analysis. Some seismicity anomalies were found and there were seismogenic gaps before the earthquake. The analysis results are as follows:the time scan curve of b-value before the earthquake is above the mean value for a long time, lasting for more than one year; There were anomalies in the spatial scanning of b, C and D values. Before the earthquake, the abnormal ranges of b-value, C-value and D-value were 1.0-2.0, 0.04-0.32 and 0.01-0.09, respectively. From April 2016 to September 2019, there was a seismogenic gap near the epicenter and the MS 5.2 earthquake occurred at the edge of the gap.
2021,42(3): 39-45 收稿日期：2021-01-21
DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1003-3246.2021.03.005
作者简介：郑永通(1973-),男,工程师,毕业于防灾科技学院地球物理专业,主要从事地震监测预报工作。E-mail:zyt2215112@163.com
参考文献：
黄德瑜, 冯浩. 强震前大范围地震活动性参数的时空扫描[J]. 地震学报, 1981, 3(3):283-288.
李冰溯, 李细光, 聂冠军, 等. 广西北流MS 5.2地震发震构造[J]. 华北地震科学, 2019, 37(Z1):17-23.
陆远忠, 李胜乐, 邓志辉, 等. 基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M]. 成都:成都地图出版社, 2002.
Gutenberg B, Richter C F. Seismicity of the earth and associated phenomena[M]. Princeton University Press, 1954.
