基于2014—2019年四川气象监测的雷电大气静电场资料，研究了同期四川MS≥5.0地震前的异常信息。结果显示，50%的MS≥5.0地震前，大气静电场日均值有异常变化，主要表现为低值突跳，异常形态呈多样性，较突出的有不规则“W”“V”“U”型等。日均值低值异常出现后114天r=eM空间范围内发生MS≥5.0地震的可能性较大，其中，第10—19天，发震概率为33%；第2—9天，发震概率为17%。基于气象雷电监测的大气静电场观测资料，在排除雷电等干扰的情况下，可用于地震监测预报。
Based on the data of lightning atmospheric electrostatic field monitored by Sichuan meteorological from 2014 to 2019, the anomaly information before MS ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Sichuan Province in the same period is studied. The results show that before half of the MS ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, the daily mean value of the atmospheric electrostatic field shows abnormal changes, mainly appearing as low-value sudden jumps with diverse anomaly forms. Typical anomaly forms include irregular "U", "V" and "W" shapes. After the occurrence of a low-value anomaly of daily mean value, there is a high possibility of MS ≥ 5.0 earthquake within the distance of R=eM in 114 days, of which the probability of earthquake occurrence is 33% from day 10 to day 19 and 17% from day 2 to day 9. The observation data of atmospheric electrostatic field monitored by meteorological lightning observation can be used for earthquake monitoring and prediction after removing interference such as lightning.
2021,42(5): 110-117 收稿日期：2020-05-13
DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1003-3246.2021.05.016
基金项目：四川省科技厅面上项目（项目编号：2018JY0428、2018JY0259）
作者简介：邱桂兰(1972-),女,高级工程师,主要从事地震监测预报研究。E-mail:285108546@qq.com
参考文献：
柴瑞,王振会,肖稳安,等. 大气电场资料在雷电预警中应用[J].气象科技,2009,37(6):724-728.
高菊霞,杨碧轩,程永进.闪电和大气电场资料在预警业务中的应用[J].陕西气象,2015,(Z1):20-24.
郝建国.近地表大气电场异常与地震[J]. 地震学报,1988,10(2):206-212.
郝建国,唐天明,李德瑞. 大气电场异常作为地震短临预报标志研究进展[J]. 地震,1998,18(3):245-256.
郝建国. 地震静电预测学[M]. 东营:石油大学出版社,2001:1-100.
靳小兵,卜俊伟,陆茂,等.四川省雷电探测网效率评估和改进方法研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2011,32(3):65-68.
靳小兵,李一丁,卜俊伟,等.两个雷电预警系统的应用与对比[J].气象科技,2013,41(5):923-928.
李一丁,张亮,张琨,等. "5.12"汶川地震前近地面大气电场异常研究[J]. 高原山地气象研究,2017,37(1):49-53.
刘畅,张婧雯,靳小兵.成都地区不同天气条件下大气电场特征研究[J]. 高原山地气象研究,2016,32(2):88-92.
马伽洛伦,马富润. 地电异常与地震前兆引论[M]. 昆明:云南大学出版社,2014.
于建立,樊亚东,詹清华.分层土壤时特征参数对地闪通道附近地面垂直电场的影响[J].高电压技术,2015,41(5):1 671-1 679.
张亮,靳小兵,卜俊伟.雷电水平电场时域近似算法研究及精度验证[J].高电压技术,2016,42(2):1-9.
朱培育,戴乐翔,张艺,等. 地闪对崇明地震台地球物理观测的干扰[J]. 地震地磁观测与研究,2019,40(1):91-95.
Jin X B, Zhang L, Bu J W, et al. Discussion on anomaly of atmospheric electrostatic field in Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake[J]. Journal of Electrostatics, 2020, 104:103 423.
Ozaki M, Yagitani S, Nagano I, et al. Ionospheric penetration characteristics of ELF waves radiated from a current source in the lithosphere related to seismic activity[J]. Radio Science, 2009, 44(1):RS1005.
