基于川滇地区及云南省地震目录，统计并分析1900年以来云南地区M≥6.8地震发生特点，并选取1965年1月1日到2023年12月31日云南地区（21°00'—28°30'N，97°30'—105°00'E）MS≥5地震进行统计分析，以楚雄地震窗和滇东北地区MS≥5.0地震为例，分析MS≥5.0地震与云南地区强震的对应关系。结果显示：①云南地区目前正处于第五活动期初期阶段，初步判断该区未来MS≥6.8地震在红河断裂以东地区发生的可能性较大。②云南地区M≥6.9地震多集中发生在每年11月至次年5月，大震缺震月份多在每年8—10月。③云南地区MS 5.0—5.9地震年频次达5次或5次以上（双震、震群按1次计算），一般在4—34.1个月内，该区有MS≥7.0地震对应发生。④云南楚雄地震窗及滇东北地区MS≥5.0地震与云南地区强震之间存在显著相关性，体现在：楚雄地震窗每发生1次MS≥5.0地震，云南地区即有1次MS≥7.0地震对应发生，其间隔时间在16.6—41.8个月；滇东北地区每发生1次MS 5.0—6.5地震，云南地区即有1次MS≥7.0地震对应发生，其间隔时间在20天至47个月。本研究结果可为今后云南强震中期预测提供参考。
Based on the seismic catalogues of the Sichuan-Yunnan region and Yunnan Province, the characteristics of earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.8 or greater in Yunnan since 1900 were statistically analyzed. Additionally, earthquakes with magnitudes of 5 or greater in Yunnan (21°00'—28°30'N, 97°30'—105°00'E) from January 1, 1965 to December 31, 2023 were statistically analyzed. Taking the Chuxiong seismic window and MS≥5.0 earthquakes in northeastern Yunnan as examples, the relationship between MS≥5.0 earthquakes and strong earthquakes in Yunnan was analyzed. The results show that:①Yunnan is currently in the early stage of the fifth active period, and it is preliminarily judged that the possibility of an MS≥6.8 earthquake occurring east of the Red River Fault is relatively high in the future. ②Earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.9 or greater in Yunnan are mostly concentrated from November to May of the following year, and the months with a lack of major earthquakes are mostly from August to October.③When the annual frequency of MS 5.0—5.9 earthquakes in Yunnan reaches 5 or more (double earthquakes and earthquake swarms are counted as one), an MS≥7.0 earthquake usually occurs within 4 to 34.1 months.④There is a significant correlation between the Chuxiong seismic window and MS≥5.0 earthquakes in northeastern Yunnan and strong earthquakes in Yunnan. Specifically, for every MS≥5.0 earthquake in the Chuxiong seismic window, there is a corresponding MS≥7.0 earthquake in Yunnan, with an interval of 16.6 to 41.8 months; for every MS 5.0—6.5 earthquake in northeastern Yunnan, there is a corresponding MS≥7.0 earthquake in Yunnan, with an interval of 20 days to 47 months. The results of this study can provide a reference for the medium-term prediction of strong earthquakes in Yunnan in the future.
2025,46(1): 42-48 收稿日期：2024-5-23
DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1003-3246.2025.01.006
作者简介：蒋启金（1976—），男，高级工程师，主要从事地震监测预报等相关工作。E-mail：ynbsjqj@163.com
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